The Summit, held every five years, begins Monday, May 3rd, in New York City, and ends on May 28th, assuming the world doesn't blow up before then. If you're pressed for time enough for even one page, let me personally prophecy the following:
* Many proposals will be put on the table and avidly discussed, and none will be agreed on.
* As it is realized that no progress is being made, accusations will begin coming from all sides.
* The summit will end, with less agreement than when it started. All sides will claim victory.
In the 1960's, the point was to halt the spread of nukes beyond the five nations which possessed them: China, England, France, Russia, and the U.S. The rest of the world would agree not to develop nukes in exchange for the Big Five agreeing to get rid of theirs over time. And, naturalich, everyone would monitor and be monitored. And one more little issue, which any one of us could have predicted would prove to be problematic: the non-nuke nations could develop nuclear for peaceful energy purposes. (Who of us could not have predicted trouble here?)
Of course, problems have developed on that last little issue, Iran being perhaps the most obvious participant, and North Korea. So the idea is to discuss having a sort of 'central processing place' for all of this work on 'nuclear for peaceful purpose', thereby allowing all nations to visit, watch and supervise the goings-on. This idea will be discussed ad nauseum at this summit. You and I both know nothing whatever will come of it.
Another little problem that has arisen over the years is the difficulty of the IAEA to monitor a nation's - for the sake of argument, let's call that nation Iran - nuclear facilities. It appears that somehow Iran has facilities that the IAEA had failed to notice. Whoever would have thought such a thing could happen (except you and me)? Now, this type of little oversight has nurtured a certain understandable attitude of distrust among the otherwise salutary group of 189 nations.
Now that mention of 189 nations raises another difficulty. A unanimous vote is required to get anything done. You can see the problem. Self-interest can rarely apply to 189 different entities, thus diminishing any reasonable expectations of progress.
And then of course there may be hard feelings over the fact that some nations other than the Big Five have somehow managed over the years to develop nuclear capabilities, which was ... tsk! tsk! ... against the rules. Not only that, but nations have taken sides on who the "It's OK to have them" nations, and who the "It's Not OK to have them" nations, among the rule-breakers should be. Yes, it will descend into another unproductive and insoluble dilemma.
So, of course, it logically follows that another agenda item will be whether or not countries can 'opt out' of participating, which some have duplicitously deigned to do (without asking permission). As you and I can plainly see, this item is not going to be resolved, either. Just like in school, people will end up voting with their current set of friends.
As this interminably month-long summit begins to drag on, and the first flush of the rose diminishes, more and more attendees will find other more tantalizing things to do in the Big Apple than attend these increasingly tedious meetings. And since they are all protected with that haven of diplomatic immunity, the sky is the limit for their outside activities - although, in truth, their proclivities seem to tend notoriously in the opposite direction than the sky. As might be expected, as these truants who are now free from the ever-present ears of the '189' discover, there are side deals to be covertly made outside of the summit halls. This is where any real progress is made, if 'progress' is the word one wishes to use. Unfortunately, this type of progress usually fails to contribute to the goals of the summit; in fact, these agreements tend to be the very things that cause the problems and disagreements aforementioned.
As the event winds down, there is the usual bandying about of such things as test-ban treaties and other ideas so far-fetched in the probability of actual accomplishment that the discussion tends toward a more relaxed atmosphere. Add in those clandestine agreements made in the highways and byways of NYC, and the event ends in a downright sporting milieu, as all 189 put on their false faces for the soundbites with the media, before jetting off to report 'productive talks' to the press at home - assuming no nuclear war has been initiated during the summit.
And that, my friends, is what will take place. I haven't lived all these years for nothing.
Royal Heir
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